Next week’s global economic calendar is full of very important indicators and speakers from all over the world. As always, investors are paying special attention to any news from the U.S. in order to anticipate the Fed’s next move. This sounds like a lot of guesswork, but it is clear that the Federal Reserve’s policies for 2016 will have a gigantic effect on global economics.
At the beginning of the year, the market agreed that the Fed will probably raise interest rates 3 or 4 times over the course of the year 2016. Due to recent developments, the overall market sentiment has turned rather hawkish, with investors saying the Fed could only raise rates once, or maybe even not at all.
The U.S. dollar received quite a bit of strength based on the premises that the Fed will raise their rates in 2016. Moreover, the stock market plunged by nearly 11% since the beginning of the year based on the same information. Due to increased global volatility, as well as all these internal issues, some voting members of the Fed’s boards have deemed a rate hike at this time to be “unwise” at this time.
The next meeting of the Fed will take place on 15-16 March 2016 and a statement that hints further monetary policy actions will be released shortly after. Fresh economic data from the U.S. will also be received by that point, including new job reports, GDP and CPI. The central bankers will have all the necessary data to drive their economic policy forward. This meeting is seen as key for this year. Stating that the previous plan to hike the rate 3 or 4 times will remain unchanged will certainly bring new strength to the U.S. dollar, while a more hawkish tone could send it tumbling.
The entire investing world is sure to watch this meeting carefully. Up to then, we will continue to collect hints and watch economic and stock market data, trying to predict how these will influence the Fed’s decisions.